July 2021 Island of Hawaii Real Estate Update
Hawaii Island Real Estate in all classes including land continue to be strong sellers in July 2021. I believe the best comparison is between 2019 and 2021 statistics as 2020 was a “shut down” year with few buyers or sellers actually on island and able to make decisions while present within the market place. Post shut down buyers continue to pour in with vacation rentals at peak occupancy similar to what we typically have during the winter, snow-bird season. Current owners usually list and trade properties during this season but winter 2021 has stretched to late summer 2021 and I see no end in sight for demand with very limited supplies of inventory.
I compared stats regarding July 2019 VS. July 2021 using data from Hawaii Information Service, our MLS on Hawaii Island. 2019 was a great sales year but this year is on another level for South Kohala properties. Lack of inventory is holding sales in check-see decline from 2019 for total sales volume. Condo sales volume in the South Kohala district increased 155% in June 2021 compared to sales in June 2019 but total YTD sales have declined -20% likely due to lack of inventory from +/- $113m to $91m. Island-wide days on market have dropped from 72 to 38 and the average list to sale ratio went from a sales price of 94.77% of the list price to buyers paying 101.54%-above list price. There are plenty of other stats that are interesting. For me, land sales stats signal top of market as Sales Volume has increased 150% for the month of June 2021 compared to June 2019. The volume of land is up over 50% due to plentiful supplies.
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I believe total sales volume for 2021 could have been 2x what we have experienced for condos and single family homes if we had adequate supplies even at much higher prices in Kona and the Kohala Coast districts.
Corelogic predicts price appreciation Nationally to drop from the current high of 17% annually to 3% growth in the next 12 months. They attribute this to increased inventory and reduced demand will slow sales and price growth-we will see if this is the case on Hawaii Island. See more stats and highlights below from Corelogic and Hawaii Information Service (MLS).
- U.S. Home Price Insights CoreLogic
- U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Rockets to New Records
- Homeowner Equity Insights June 2021
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|Island Wide YTD-2021-Sales Volume||2019||2021|
|South Kohala District YTD -2021-Sales Volume|
2019 VS. 2021 Hawaii Information Service Highlights (MLS) Hawaii Island
Island Wide-Comparison Statistics June 2019 VS. June 2021:
- Single Family Homes Sales Volume Change + 111%
- Condo Sales Volume Change + 100%
- Land Sales Volume Change + 150%
South Kohala-Comparison Statistics June 2019 VS. June 2021:
- Single Family Homes Sales Volume Change + 66%
- Condo Sales Volume Change + 155%
- Land Sales Volume Change + 90%
Corelogic Report Highlights:
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 17.2%
June 2021 compared with June 2020 and increased month over month by 2.3% in June 2021 compared with May 2021.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.7% from June 2021 to July 2021, and on a year-over-year basis by 3.2% from June 2021 to June 2022.
As supply and demand pressures endure and construction costs spike, in June, home price gains reached the highest annual growth since 1979. However, CoreLogic projects home price gains may slow over the next 12 months as demand moderates and for-sale inventory rises.
Detached homes had the highest annual growth in June since the inception of the CoreLogic Home Price Index in 1976.” Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic
Now, almost 6 in 10 homes listed are selling over the asking price. Nevertheless, with more new listings and new home construction, home price acceleration that has built momentum, and continues to reach new highs, will likely slow later this summer but remain in double digits.
Homeowner Equity Q1 2021-CoreLogic analysis shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 62% of all properties*) have seen their equity increase by a total of nearly $1.9 trillion since the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 19.6%, year over year.
In the first quarter of 2021, the average homeowner gained approximately $33,400 in equity during the past year.